AMON HENthe Seat of Seeing · Hyperliquid
The Two Towers · behavior

Winners and losers, side by side

In the last 24 hours the losers moved 499 times, the winners 1. Over 24 hours, the winners sold a net $7.13M of BTC; the losers sold a net $4.50M of HYPE.

BTC, ETH, SOL and HYPE · the Captains every five minutes, the Host every thirty · last collection 11-15 11:33:04 UTC · panel watched since 09-23 14:34:11 UTC

Minas Tirith · net flow 24h

-$11.16M1 net buyers · 3 net sellersThe winners, all four assets

Minas Morgul · net flow 24h

-$2.72M15 net buyers · 5 net sellersThe losers, all four assets

Moves in 24 hours

1 · 499winners · losersExecutions detected, grouped by order

Seen over 24h

52 / 6464 accounts enrolledComplete execution coverage in the window
Narrow the watchAll four assets24h windowBoth towersAll sizesAddress 0x07fd99…689d
Reset
I · The Duel

Who buys, who sells among the Captains

Sixty-odd captains, watched trade by trade. Same assets, same window, same capital range: the winners on the left, the losers on the right. The middle shows what the price did meanwhile.

Window1h4h24hAll capital ranges
Minas Tiriththe winners
price 24h
Minas Morgulthe losers
-$7.13M1 buying · 1 selling26/32 seen
BTC-2.44 %
+$443.8k5 buying · 1 selling26/32 seen
$00 buying · 0 selling26/32 seen
ETH-3.71 %
+$1.21M6 buying · 1 selling26/32 seen
$00 buying · 0 selling26/32 seen
SOL-3.94 %
+$128.0k3 buying · 1 selling26/32 seen
-$4.03M0 buying · 2 selling26/32 seen
HYPE-0.51 %
-$4.50M1 buying · 2 selling26/32 seen
How to read this

Net buying includes short covering; net selling includes new shorts. Flows are signed quantity changes valued at one current reference price, and only accounts observed throughout the window count. A missing or incomplete observation never counts as an exit.

Winners had positive 7-day and 30-day PnL when they joined the panel, losers negative on both. These labels describe selection, not skill or current profitability.

II · The Pelennor fields

The Host: the same question, asked of thousands

6,000 accounts drawn from the leaderboard by the Captains' own rules, each read every thirty minutes. Too many to follow trade by trade: a flow here is the change of a position from one read to the next.

The winning host2,512 accounts · 4.07x
price 4h
The losing host3,488 accounts · 4.53x
+$88.86M102 buying · 88 selling2512/2512 seen
BTC+1.90 %
+$1.90M112 buying · 99 selling3488/3488 seen
+$13.31M54 buying · 41 selling2512/2512 seen
ETH+2.59 %
+$14.57M45 buying · 50 selling3488/3488 seen
-$641.0k31 buying · 36 selling2512/2512 seen
SOL+3.32 %
+$2.85M38 buying · 23 selling3488/3488 seen
-$1.77M61 buying · 104 selling2512/2512 seen
HYPE+4.07 %
+$17.92M92 buying · 102 selling3488/3488 seen

All capital ranges

Where the Host stands, last sweep

Each bar is the share of the accounts holding the asset that are long; the tick marks one half. The winning host carries 4.07x its equity in open positions, the losing host 4.53x. A position is not a gain.

BTC

  • Winning host28 % long
    net -$361.69M · 514 of 2,118 in a position
  • Losing host87 % long
    net +$294.86M · 662 of 2,776 in a position

ETH

  • Winning host23 % long
    net -$291.23M · 367 of 2,118 in a position
  • Losing host85 % long
    net +$262.04M · 356 of 2,776 in a position

SOL

  • Winning host20 % long
    net -$92.88M · 223 of 2,118 in a position
  • Losing host80 % long
    net +$81.59M · 221 of 2,776 in a position

HYPE

  • Winning host23 % long
    net -$271.49M · 560 of 2,118 in a position
  • Losing host90 % long
    net +$284.46M · 589 of 2,776 in a position

The Host over seven days

Long share of the accounts in a position, and net flow by four-hour slices, for each camp.
BTC · long share, every two hours
BTC · net flow, every four hours
ETH · long share, every two hours
ETH · net flow, every four hours
SOL · long share, every two hours
SOL · net flow, every four hours
HYPE · long share, every two hours
HYPE · net flow, every four hours

The Host by capital, over 4h

Size is the account's equity when the Host was last drawn.
BTC$10k–100kTirith537/5372722+$2.86M
BTC$10k–100kMorgul1,156/1,1564431+$1.79M
BTC$100k–1MTirith1,518/1,5185538+$20.49M
BTC$100k–1MMorgul1,990/1,9905450-$4.00M
BTC$1M–10MTirith392/3921321+$64.48M
BTC$1M–10MMorgul310/3101216+$3.87M
BTC$10M+Tirith65/6577+$1.03M
BTC$10M+Morgul32/3222+$236.5k
ETH$10k–100kTirith537/537139+$772.3k
ETH$10k–100kMorgul1,156/1,1561710+$90.1k
ETH$100k–1MTirith1,518/1,5182619+$13.00M
ETH$100k–1MMorgul1,990/1,9902127+$17.30M
ETH$1M–10MTirith392/392109+$4.35M
ETH$1M–10MMorgul310/310612-$2.86M
ETH$10M+Tirith65/6554-$4.81M
ETH$10M+Morgul32/3211+$38.4k
SOL$10k–100kTirith537/53758+$613.6k
SOL$10k–100kMorgul1,156/1,156165+$393.8k
SOL$100k–1MTirith1,518/1,518169-$50.6k
SOL$100k–1MMorgul1,990/1,9901512+$524.5k
SOL$1M–10MTirith392/392811-$48.5k
SOL$1M–10MMorgul310/31066+$1.90M
SOL$10M+Tirith65/6528-$1.16M
SOL$10M+Morgul32/3210+$30.9k
HYPE$10k–100kTirith537/5371419-$1.88M
HYPE$10k–100kMorgul1,156/1,1563935+$146.7k
HYPE$100k–1MTirith1,518/1,5182858+$457.7k
HYPE$100k–1MMorgul1,990/1,9904252+$8.53M
HYPE$1M–10MTirith392/3921218-$388.5k
HYPE$1M–10MMorgul310/3101015+$9.24M
HYPE$10M+Tirith65/6579+$39.6k
HYPE$10M+Morgul32/3210+$337
How to read this

The Host is every leaderboard account the Captains' rules would admit: at least $10k, 7-day and 30-day PnL of the same sign, some volume over 30 days. It is drawn again every day, so its winners are today's winners. Up to 6,000 accounts, the largest first.

Each account is read by its open positions every thirty minutes. A flow is the change between two reads less than two hours apart, valued at the price of the second read: a position opened and closed between two reads is not seen, a liquidation counts as a sale. Per account, the changes over the window are netted first; buyers and sellers are counted by that net.

III · The Ramparts

Winners and losers, by account size

Each tower has four levels, from the small accounts to the ten-million ones. Compare a floor with the same floor across the valley.

Net flows over 24h, by capital at entry

Only accounts observed throughout the window. Empty strata are not filled with accounts from another range.
BTC$10k–100kTirith7/810+$3.9k100.0 %0
BTC$10k–100kMorgul7/800$0—0
BTC$100k–1MTirith6/800$0—0
BTC$100k–1MMorgul6/811-$53.5k72.7 %0
BTC$1M–10MTirith6/800$0—0
BTC$1M–10MMorgul6/830+$476.1k68.8 %0
BTC$10M+Tirith7/801-$7.13M100.0 %0
BTC$10M+Morgul7/810+$21.3k100.0 %0
ETH$10k–100kTirith7/800$0—0
ETH$10k–100kMorgul7/810+$4.8k100.0 %0
ETH$100k–1MTirith6/800$0—0
ETH$100k–1MMorgul6/811-$71.0k96.8 %0
ETH$1M–10MTirith6/800$0—0
ETH$1M–10MMorgul6/830+$1.19M77.1 %2
ETH$10M+Tirith7/800$0—0
ETH$10M+Morgul7/810+$78.1k100.0 %0
SOL$10k–100kTirith7/800$0—0
SOL$10k–100kMorgul7/810+$4.8k100.0 %1
SOL$100k–1MTirith6/800$0—0
SOL$100k–1MMorgul6/800$0—0
SOL$1M–10MTirith6/800$0—0
SOL$1M–10MMorgul6/811+$105.8k96.4 %1
SOL$10M+Tirith7/800$0—0
SOL$10M+Morgul7/810+$17.4k100.0 %0
HYPE$10k–100kTirith7/800$0—0
HYPE$10k–100kMorgul7/800$0—0
HYPE$100k–1MTirith6/800$0—0
HYPE$100k–1MMorgul6/801-$86.8k100.0 %0
HYPE$1M–10MTirith6/801-$1.11M100.0 %0
HYPE$1M–10MMorgul6/811-$4.41M99.9 %1
HYPE$10M+Tirith7/801-$2.92M100.0 %0
HYPE$10M+Morgul7/800$0—0
How to read this

The largest contributor is the largest absolute account change divided by the sum of absolute changes: near 100 % means one account makes the whole flow. One address is not necessarily one independent trader.

IV · The Watch

Every move, as it was seen

31 moves in the last 24 hours match the filters, out of 2,101 collected in 24 hours. A sentinel on each rampart, every five minutes.

The journal of moves

Executions of one order are grouped within a collection; a round trip remains visible. Liquidations are marked.
11-15 10:18:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+HYPE · Reduce long12,580.25 → 12,469.39$7.6kWithin range1.3× median0 %-0.10%pendingpending
11-15 10:08:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+HYPE · Reduce long12,691.11 → 12,580.25$7.6kWithin range1.3× median0 %-0.76%pendingpending
11-15 09:18:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+BTC · Reduce long19.76717 → 19.60473$10.7kWithin range1.2× median0 %-0.47%pendingpending
11-15 09:18:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+HYPE · Reduce long12,801.97 → 12,691.11$7.5kWithin range1.2× median0 %+1.30%pendingpending
11-15 09:13:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+SOL · Reduce long5,921.81 → 5,873.81$3.5kWithin range1.2× median0 %-0.69%pendingpending
11-15 09:13:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+ETH · Reduce long1,286.9296 → 1,276.2931$19.5kWithin range1.2× median0 %-0.76%pendingpending
11-15 09:08:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+HYPE · Reduce long12,912.83 → 12,801.97$7.4kWithin range1.2× median0 %+2.00%pendingpending
11-15 09:08:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+BTC · Reduce long19.92961 → 19.76717$10.6kWithin range1.2× median0 %-0.49%pendingpending
11-15 09:08:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+SOL · Reduce long5,969.81 → 5,921.81$3.4kWithin range1.2× median0 %+0.20%pendingpending
11-15 07:58:040x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+SOL · Add long5,921.81 → 5,969.81$3.3kWithin range1.2× median0 %+1.30%pendingpending
11-15 07:53:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+BTC · Add long19.76717 → 19.92961$10.4kWithin range1.2× median0 %+1.51%pendingpending
11-15 06:13:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+ETH · Add long1,276.2931 → 1,286.9296$19.0kWithin range1.2× median0 %+0.07%+2.26%pending
11-15 03:08:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+ETH · Reduce long1,286.9296 → 1,276.2931$19.5kWithin range1.2× median0 %-0.41%-1.76%pending
11-15 03:08:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+BTC · Reduce longLiquidation19.92961 → 19.76717$10.6kWithin range1.1× median0 %-0.64%-1.19%pending
11-15 02:43:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+SOL · Reduce long5,969.81 → 5,921.81$3.4kWithin range1.2× median0 %+0.74%-0.86%pending
11-15 02:38:020x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+ETH · Reduce long1,297.5661 → 1,286.9296$19.2kWithin range1.2× median0 %+0.66%-0.82%pending
11-15 02:38:020x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+HYPE · Reduce long13,023.69 → 12,912.83$7.3kWithin range1.2× median0 %-0.11%-1.15%pending
11-15 02:23:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+BTC · Reduce long20.09205 → 19.92961$10.5kWithin range1.1× median0 %+1.36%+0.29%pending
11-15 02:23:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+HYPE · Reduce long13,134.55 → 13,023.69$7.2kWithin range1.2× median0 %+1.50%+0.05%pending
11-15 02:23:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+ETH · Reduce long1,308.2026 → 1,297.5661$19.0kWithin range1.2× median0 %+1.53%-0.08%pending
11-15 02:23:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+SOL · Reduce long6,017.81 → 5,969.81$3.4kWithin range1.2× median0 %+1.57%+0.07%pending
11-15 02:18:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+BTC · Reduce long20.25449 → 20.09205$10.4kWithin range1.2× median0 %+1.34%+0.01%pending
11-15 02:18:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+ETH · Reduce long1,310.8821 → 1,308.2026$4.7kWithin range0.3× median0 %+1.76%-0.04%pending
11-15 02:18:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+ETH · Reduce longLiquidation1,311.3364 → 1,310.8821$803Within range0.1× median0 %+1.76%-0.04%pending
11-15 02:18:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+ETH · Reduce long1,318.8391 → 1,311.3364$13.3kWithin range0.8× median0 %+1.76%-0.04%pending
11-15 02:13:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+HYPE · Reduce long13,245.41 → 13,134.55$7.2kWithin range1.2× median0 %+2.38%+0.48%pending
11-15 02:13:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+SOL · Reduce long6,065.81 → 6,017.81$3.3kWithin range1.2× median0 %+2.50%+0.19%pending
11-15 02:13:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+HYPE · Reduce long13,356.27 → 13,245.41$7.1kWithin range1.2× median0 %+2.38%+0.48%pending
11-15 01:53:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+HYPE · Add long13,245.41 → 13,356.27$6.9kWithin range1.2× median0 %+5.61%+5.02%pending
11-15 01:43:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+SOL · Add long6,017.81 → 6,065.81$3.3kWithin range1.2× median0 %+5.10%+4.87%pending
11-15 01:38:000x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+BTC · Add long20.09205 → 20.25449$10.1kWithin range1.2× median0 %+3.75%+3.85%pending
How to read this

Unusual means a size above twice the account’s median and its 95th percentile, relative to current equity, for this asset; it needs at least 20 earlier events spanning seven days. Forced liquidations are labelled and never flagged as unusual. Price changes start at detection, exclude trading costs and do not establish predictive value.

V · The Garrison

The Captains, one by one

64 accounts, eight per floor and per tower, chosen once and followed whatever becomes of them.

Who stands in each tower

Up to eight accounts in each of eight strata, evenly spaced by equity rank among active leaderboard accounts. Mixed results and equity below $10k are excluded.
0x07fd99…689dMorgul$10M+$11.02M-$1.91M-$1.54MObserved11-15 11:33:04
How to read this

Membership, performance labels and size bands are frozen at admission: an account that later loses money or changes size stays where it was placed. These historical labels do not capture hedges or activity on other platforms.

VI · The Measure

What the price did next

Every move is followed by the price one hour, four hours and a day later. No score is published: the ledger is kept until it can be judged fairly.

After 1 hour14,069moves measured · 1,017 asset/time buckets
After 4 hours14,224moves measured · 461 asset/time buckets
After 24 hours12,128moves measured · 108 asset/time buckets

Completed 24-hour observations

The latest 100 moves with a measured 24h outcome, older than the journal window included. Asset, tower, size, address and amount filters apply.
11-14 06:13:000x07fd99…689dMorgul · $10M+HYPE · Reduce long-0.48%-0.69%-6.15%
11-14 04:48:000x07fd99…689dMorgul · $10M+HYPE · Reduce long+0.33%+0.66%-3.69%
11-14 04:03:020x07fd99…689dMorgul · $10M+HYPE · Add long+2.36%+3.45%-2.43%
11-14 03:38:000x07fd99…689dMorgul · $10M+HYPE · Add long+1.02%+2.32%-2.56%
11-14 03:38:000x07fd99…689dMorgul · $10M+BTC · Add long+0.09%-0.01%-2.91%
11-14 03:38:000x07fd99…689dMorgul · $10M+HYPE · Add long+1.02%+2.32%-2.56%
11-14 02:33:030x07fd99…689dMorgul · $10M+BTC · Add long-0.39%+0.01%-3.78%
11-14 02:33:030x07fd99…689dMorgul · $10M+ETH · Add long-0.13%+0.43%-4.76%
11-14 02:33:030x07fd99…689dMorgul · $10M+HYPE · Add long-3.02%-0.56%-5.65%
11-14 02:33:030x07fd99…689dMorgul · $10M+SOL · Add long-0.26%-0.08%-6.37%
11-14 02:28:000x07fd99…689dMorgul · $10M+HYPE · Add long-0.84%-0.95%-6.26%
11-14 02:28:000x07fd99…689dMorgul · $10M+HYPE · Add long-0.84%-0.95%-6.26%
11-14 02:28:000x07fd99…689dMorgul · $10M+SOL · Add long-0.46%-0.44%-7.00%
11-14 02:28:000x07fd99…689dMorgul · $10M+SOL · Add long-0.46%-0.44%-7.00%
11-14 02:28:000x07fd99…689dMorgul · $10M+SOL · Add long-0.46%-0.44%-7.00%
11-14 02:28:000x07fd99…689dMorgul · $10M+ETH · Add long-0.22%-0.10%-5.66%
How to read this

A measurement is left blank when its target time is missed by more than ten minutes. Buckets reduce repeated counting but are not independent trials. A future evaluation must compare the towers within the same asset, capital range and market regime, on unseen periods. Read the method.